The Chinese aerospace sector will more than double its commercial aircraft fleet over the next two decades to match expanding demand for passenger and cargo transport, Boeing reported in a regional Commercial Market Outlook. In numerical terms, that means 4.1% average annual growth through 2043, and an increase from 4,345 aircraft to 9,740 passenger and cargo jets.
Boeing did not forecast the Chinese market valuation in its report.
The forecast calls for about 60% of that growth to be accomplished by airlines increasing their capacity, and 40% to be accounted for by replacing older aircraft with more new models.
In terms of aircraft types, the Boeing report foresees the expanded fleet adding 6,720 new narrowbody jets, 1,575 widebody aircraft, 365 reginal jets, and 170 new air freighters – or 8,830 new aircraft through 2043.
In July Boeing released a global CMO report that forecast world’s commercial aircraft fleet will grow 3.2% annually through 2043 – slower than the growth in passenger traffic, as airlines continue to boost productivity by increasing load factors and using airplanes more hours per day.
The number of air passengers in the Chinese market will increase 5.9% annually over the 20-year period, higher than the global average increase of 4.7%. Those rising passenger volumes will be driven by airlines expanding their route networks to smaller cities in China, Boeing predicted.
"China's commercial aviation market for passengers and cargo continues to expand, driven by economic growth and airlines building their in-country networks," according to Darren Hulst, Boeing vice president of Commercial Marketing. "As this forecast shows, China's airlines will see strong demand, requiring further growth of their modern fuel-efficient fleets."
Despite some tense relations with Chinese regulators in recent years, Boeing has been operating in the country for more than 50 years. It recently resume deliveries of 737 MAX jets to China, where it has a large number of orders awaiting fulfilment.
At the end of 2023, Boeing listed 119 outstanding orders for 737 MAX aircraft for customers in China, and 12 unfilled orders for 787 Dreamliner customers in that country.
