Aircraft builder Embraer recently issued its 20-year forecast for sub-150-seat commercial aircraft deliveries – the market segment in which it is most successful. The report estimates global demand for 10,500 new jet and turboprop aircraft during the 2024-2043 period.
In financial terms, it pegs the total demand for new sub-150-seat aircraft over that period at $640 billion.
Embraer is the world’s third-largest manufacturer of civil aircraft, following Airbus and Boeing, and has divisions for commercial, executive, military, and agricultural aviation sectors. It is recognized mainly for its regional and medium-range commercial jets, in particular the narrow-body E-Jets.
The report recognizes similar regional demand growth in Asia and Latin America that has been identified by Airbus and Boeing in their annual forecasts over recent years – plus steady growth and high rates of replacement in established markets in North America and Europe.
But Embraer notes that the relevance of the small narrow-body category is increasing, as larger aircraft are not always economically or operationally feasible “for medium and lower-density markets, particularly when multiple daily frequencies are essential for those cities to stay well-connected.”
New sub-150-seat commercial jet deliveries over the forecast period will total 8,470 units, heavily concentrated in the developed markets of North America (2,610, or 30.8% of the total) and Europe/CIS (2,110; 24.9%), with China & Asia Pacific (2,260; 26.7%) adding to the volume.
Latin America (770; 9.1%), Africa (380; 4.5%), and the Middle East (340; 4.0%) complete the regional demand outlook.
“A mix fleet of sub-150-seat jets and larger narrow-bodies will be the successful fleet strategy for the next 20 years,” summarized Arjan Meijer, Embraer’s President & CEO of Commercial Aviation.
“The post-pandemic environment is different in so many ways,” Meijer continued. “The business/leisure passenger mix is different. Demand patterns are different. The corporate workplace is different. And e-commerce is booming. Carriers are adding capacity in big markets, yet smaller cities still need to stay well-connected to airline networks with high frequency air service. We believe aircraft in the sub-150-seat category are the most efficient and cost-effective to address that need.”
