The World Steel Association has updated its semi-annual forecast for global steel consumption, now projecting that demand will rise by 0.3% during 2026 to 1.72 billion metric tons. That would be followed by a further 2.2% increase in global demand during 2027, to 1.76 billion metric tons.
While tepid, the new Short Range Outlook report counts as progress for World Steel and its member companies in 69 nations, whose industry has been beset by weak industrial and construction sectors around the world during much of the current decade. Global steel output has been dragged by the weak demand, with production slipping consistently for four consecutive years, 2022-2025.
“Our latest forecasts validate the trajectory established in our October 2025 Short Range Outlook,” stated Alfonso Hidalgo de Calcerrada, chief economist, UNESID, and chairman of the World Steel Economics Committee, “confirming that global steel demand is bottoming out over the 2025-2026 period. This follows a protracted and challenging phase of global structural adjustments that has suppressed demand since 2022.”
The more positive outlook is spurred by “distinct shifts in regional dynamics,” according to Hidalgo. “In China the rate of demand contraction is finally decelerating in 2026, while demand growth across key developing markets, most notably India, remains vibrant.”
He characterized the trend as “a meaningful turnaround in the developed world as a whole. After a protracted period of decline, we expect to see all major developed economies, including the European Union, the U.S., Canada, Japan, and Korea, posting positive growth in 2027.”
China - which manufactures more than half of the world’s raw steel - is a significant factor in consumption too. According to the new SRO, global steel demand excluding China is forecast to accelerate to a growth rate of 4.0% in 2027.
Chinese demand apparently has been weaker than past analyses have accounted, but for 2026 World Steel is anticipating demand to slip by -1.5%, as the housing market there begins to flatten. “Infrastructure investments in the country are expected to edge up this year, supported by local government efforts to maintain moderately strong GDP growth,” according to Hidalgo.
The World Steel SRO anticipates that Chinese manufacturers’ steel demand will maintain moderate growth, supported by exports despite global trade conditions that could limit that possible outlet.
U.S. steel demand is forecast to rise 1.7% this year, and 2.0% in 2027, propelled by “strong, technology-driven and policy-backed private-sector investment” and ongoing infrastructure projects. World Steel also forecasts growth in U.S. steel consumption due to residential construction activity in 2026, paced by pent-up demand and easier financing.
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Robert Brooks
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Robert Brooks has been a business-to-business reporter, writer, editor, and columnist for more than 20 years, specializing in the primary metal and basic manufacturing industries.