- Number of aircraft in service will double
- “Airlines demand more efficiency”
Single-aisle jets like Boeing’s Next-Generation 737 and 737 MAX (debuting in 2017) will lead the global market’s demand for new aircraft. In May, discount airline Ryanair ordered 175 Next-Generation 737-800s, a contract worth $15.6 billion.
Boeing issued its annual 20-year market forecast for commercial aircraft demand, predicting a global market for over 35,000 new planes. The jet builder pegged the value of that demand at $4.8 trillion.
For decades Boeing has produced a long-term global market outlook, and has made it available to the public for nearly 50 years. It describes the annual Current Market Outlook report as “the longest running complete worldwide jet forecast.”
The current forecast anticipates the global volume of aircraft in service to double in the next 20 years. Boeing added that passenger traffic and cargo traffic each would increase at a 5% annual rate over the two decades.
"This forecast gives us confidence as we increase our production rates and invest in new products like the 777X and 787-10X," stated Boeing Commercial Airplanes vice president of Marketing Randy Tinseth. "Airlines are demanding more efficiency and that is exactly what we'll be giving them."
For Boeing, the core of that developing market will be demand for single-aisle jets, for example, its Next-Generation 737 and forthcoming 737 MAX. It puts the number of these new jets at 24,670, noting demand from low-cost carriers and airlines in emerging markets.
Wide-body jets, such as the 747-8, 777 and 787 Dreamliner, make up another large part of the forecast. Boeing foresees demand for 8,590 such aircraft, mainly as replacement capacity for airlines that need newer and/or more fuel-efficient jets.
Boeing also predicted that demand for new airplanes would be led by airlines in the Asia-Pacific market, including China.
"Our customers are focused on growing their networks, managing their capacity and investing in new fleets," said Tinseth. "These trends will shape market demand for airplanes that have highly efficiency, low operating costs, environmentally progressive technologies and a great passenger experience. We believe Boeing's current and future products are perfectly aligned to meet those needs."